September 4, 2009

Employment Data: Fall Chill Cools Hot Market

Long‐Term Cyclical Problems: Population and Economics

Why July 1982 > August 2009

SECTOR: U.S. AND GLOBAL COMMERCE TRENDS


A significant increase in the U.S. unemployment rate and continued negative U.S. retail same store sales provides continuing evidence supporting our near‐ to medium‐term negative outlook for the U.S. economy and the health/purchasing power of the U.S. consumer

The U.S. consumer will be worse off on January 1, 2010 than they are today. Why? Four reasons: (i) growing foreclosure rates, (ii) an increasing unemployment rate, (iii) a moribund housing market and (iv) higher tax burdens to support growing government spending on a variety of initiatives

Based on the unemployment report of 4 September 2009, comments from our prior note remain true: “However, our singular data point for U.S. economic health, the unemployment rate, continues to surprise to the downside … Hence, until we see stabilization in this data point our negative outlook will remain in place.”. Read More (pdf)

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August 23, 2009

Data Discernment: All Signs Point to Further Stimulus
Jobs ... Homes ... Deficits ... Health Care ... Bernanke ... SBUX

SECTOR: U.S. AND GLOBAL COMMERCE TRENDS


A raft of recent economic data, central banker policy comments and White House deficit forecasts provide continuing evidence supporting our near‐ to medium‐term negative outlook for the U.S. economy and the health/purchasing power of the U.S. consumer.

We do scan economic data for upbeat data points to prove the U.S. economy has stopped declining and is preparing to rebound. However, our singular data point for U.S. economic health, the unemployment rate, continues to surprise to the downside (data herein). Hence, until we see stabilization in this data point our negative outlook will remain in place. Read More (pdf)

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August 13, 2009

Terrible Trifecta: Retail Sales, Job Losses and Foreclosures

SECTOR: U.S. AND GLOBAL COMMERCE TRENDS


Recent U.S. economic data, which points to the miserable state of the U.S. consumers’ balance sheet and declining level of disposable income, justifies our near‐ to medium‐term negative outlook for the U.S. consumer. In sum, we believe a steadily increasing U.S. unemployment rate, unaccounted for financial and social costs of current and future foreclosures, lack of meaningful consumer liquidity, increasing U.S. consumer savings rate and future U.S. individual tax increases all point to a continuing decline in U.S. consumer spending. Read More (pdf)

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July 29, 2009

“Eye of the Storm meets Eye of the Tiger”

SECTOR: U.S. AND GLOBAL COMMERCE TRENDS


I. Report Highlights
This ‘Decession’ is unlike any other economic phenomenon in prior history. The securitization market increased the incremental spending dollars for consumers via home equity loans and mortgage refinancings, credit cards, auto loans, student loans, personal unsecured loans and investing on margin. Aided by relaxed rules on leverage (essentially creating money out of thin air), certain financial institutions provided consumers with new sources of disposable income outside of the usual cash flow source: Salaries and bonuses..Read More (pdf)